Why Probabilistic Thinking Is One of the Most Useful Tools You’ll Ever Learn

When life feels overwhelming, our minds tend to grip tightly to anything that seems solid. We crave certainty. We want clear answers, clear outcomes, and clear rules. But here's the paradox: the more stressed we are, the more likely we are to fall into rigid, black-and-white thinking—and the more stuck we become.

This kind of thinking can make our inner world feel clunky and unforgiving. We procrastinate because we're scared to get it wrong. We chase perfection because anything less feels like failure. The result? We feel worse, not better. And all of it is driven by a need for certainty that simply doesn’t exist in the real world.

But what if we swapped out certainty for something more honest—and more useful?

One of the most powerful mental models I use in my work is this: life runs on probabilities, not guarantees. It’s a simple shift, but it changes everything.

I don’t just work with the person in front of me; I work with their internal map of reality. And when that map is a little stuck or outdated, we don’t need to redraw the whole thing—we just need to gently nudge it in a new direction.

Let me give you an example.

A client of mine was dealing with bullying at work. The situation felt unbearable, but also hopeless. She was overwhelmed with distress and the sense that nothing she could do would make a real difference. So first, we worked together to ease the emotional intensity of what she’d been carrying. Once that softened, we began exploring possible steps forward.

At first, every suggestion felt pointless to her. “What’s the use?” she’d ask. “It won’t change anything.” That’s the trap of certainty—if we can’t guarantee success, we assume it’s not worth trying.

But when we applied the probability model, something shifted. She began to see that no single step would guarantee a full resolution—but each one might increase the chances, even by 5%, that things could get better, or that she'd find a path out of that environment. With this mindset, she no longer needed assurance—just momentum.

By stepping out of the need for certainty and into the mindset of nudging the system forward, she was able to take action. Actions that mattered. Actions that changed the game.

And this is the heart of it: when we stop demanding guarantees and start thinking in terms of probabilities, life opens up. We get to experiment. We get to learn. We get to move forward—one small nudge at a time.

Try this in your own life

Think of an area where you’ve been feeling stuck. Maybe there’s a decision you’ve been avoiding, a change you’ve been putting off, or a situation that just feels hopeless.

Now ask yourself: Am I waiting for certainty?
What if, instead of needing to know it will work, you just asked: Could this action increase the chances, even slightly, that things might improve?

Try seeing your next steps as experiments—not commitments to a guaranteed outcome, but gentle nudges that shift the odds in your favour. This is one of many powerful mental models you can borrow. And the more of them you learn to use, the more flexible—and resilient—your thinking becomes.

Because when we learn to think in probabilities, we stop needing everything to be perfect. And that’s when real change begins.